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DAILY STOCK NEWSLETTER
Written 08/14/08 for 08/15/08
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Today’s Top Stock Chart
http://www.profittrading.com

Today’s Top Stock Picks
http://www.profittrading.com

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The 40 day moving average shows the S&P 500 is in a downtrend
and should be strong resistance for this rally.

If the S&P breaks thru the 40 day moving average
then a larger rally could develop,
but for right now I am expecting the 40 day to hold as resistance
and the market to break lower from here.

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We went short IBM, GS, & STT this week.

I have a list of stocks that look to be ready to collapse
and I think there will be some great short trades in tonight’s Premium Stock Newsletter.

I was just looking over the stocks we are short in the Premium Stock Newsletter
and we are in good shape if a move lower does develop as expected.

If you are a stock trader looking for some great trades
you really should give The Premium Stock Newsletter a try!!

http://www.profittrading.com/dsn.htm

Thanks !
Jim

The price of the Premium Newsletter increases to $99.00 a month September 1

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Here are some stocks we’ll be looking to go short
in the Premium Stock Newsletter
if the market breaks lower from here.

FLS
CF
MCF
BOLT
BTE
OMG
JAVA
IAG
TESO
FSLR
GMRX
APD

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COMMENTARY

The major stock indexes pulled back from intraday highs late Thursday, but were holding the bulk of the day’s gains.

At 2:40 p.m. EDT, the Nasdaq was up 1%, the Dow 0.8%, the S&P 500 0.6% and the NYSE composite 0.1%.

Turnover continued to track lower across the board.

Crude oil settled at $115.01 a barrel, down 99 cents, paring larger losses.

United Therapeutics (UTHR) erased an earlier loss and climbed 2.57 to 110.09. The drug maker ranks No. 45 in this week’s IBD 100. PharMerica (PMC) rose 0.50 to 24.41 in fast trade. The provider of pharmacy services continued to rebound from a second pullback to its 10-week moving average.

Still, heavy-volume gainers were slim.

On the downside, Intrepid Potash (IPI) dropped 3.40, or 7%, to 43.33 in heavy trading, despite posting blowout Q2 results. Late Wednesday, the fertilizer maker reported a 600% surge in earnings and a 87% jump in sales. The stock has plunged more than 40% from its June 24 peak.

CF Industries Holdings (CF), another fertilizer stock, shed 4 to 134.85. The stock’s Accumulation/Distribution Rating has crumbled to D from A- in early July.

Meanwhile, Reliance Steel & Aluminum (RS) lost 2.56 to 56.27 in heavy trade. The downturn pushed the steel products maker back under its 200-day moving average.

Stocks pushed to new session highs at midday, as crude oil turned sharply lower.

At 12:45 p.m. EDT, the Dow was up 1.4%, the Nasdaq 1.2% and the S&P 500 0.9%. The NYSE composite rose a much-smaller 0.3%, weighed down by energy stocks.

Volume continued to track lower on both exchanges. Advancers beat decliners by about 2-to-1 on both exchanges.

Oil prices tumbled $2.57 to $113.43 a barrel, giving back the bulk of Wednesday’s gains. In an interview with Reuters, oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens said oil may fall as low as $110 a barrel but will probably not go below $100, as the U.S. relies heavily on imports.

NetEase.com (NTES) erased early losses, rising 0.92 to 24.97 in heavy trading. It cleared a 24.94 buy point from a second handle. Volume was tracking about four times average. Late Wednesday, the Chinese Internet firm posted Q2 results above views.

Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) climbed 0.62 to 26.53 in fast trade. The chipmaker bounced back after it found support at its 50-day moving average Wednesday.

Amedisys (AMED) rose 1.26 to 53.58 on an upgrade. Wachovia lifted the provider of home nursing services to outperform from market perform. The stock tumbled 26% in the past two sessions, following a negative report from Citron Research.

On the downside, Salesforce.com (CRM) fell 1.83 to 67.32 in heavy trading. That sliced the software maker’s 50-day line. The stock has been building a new base, but it lacks accumulation. Salesforce.com reports earnings on Wednesday.

Mosaic (MOS) reversed from early gains and dropped 4.07 to 103.04. The fertilizer maker turned tail after nearing its 200-day line.

Indexes reversed into positive territory in late-morning trading as financials, telecoms and transports pulled higher.

The Nasdaq led with a 0.8% gain, the Dow close behind, up 0.7%. The S&P 500 added 0.5%. The NYSE composite lagged, held back primarily by energy issues, with a 0.3% gain.

Volume was soft, down nearly 10% from the same level at this time yesterday, on both exchanges.

Research In Motion (RIMM) led the big-volume gainers on the Nasdaq 100.

Commodities traded in a mildly mixed fashion. Oil prices slipped a bit but held above $115 a barrel. Gold and copper fell, while natural gas and corn prices gained. The dollar continued its firming trend, pushing the euro near a five-and-a-half month low.

Aegean Marine Petroleum (ANW) pumped out a 2.80 gain to 36. The marine fuel services provider on Wednesday reported Q2 earnings above expectations on its third straight quarter of double-digit sales growth. The gap-up put shares just above their 200-day moving average, and just below their 50-day line.

Buckle (BKE) snapped up 1.47 to 47.88. Wasserman & Associates initiated coverage on the young men’s and women’s apparel retailer with an outperform rating. Standard & Poor’s said it would add the company to its small-cap S&P 600 index after the end of trading on Aug. 19.

On the downside, True Religion Apparel (TRLG) gapped down, giving up 1.71 to 26.56 in powerful volume. The stock has been slipping since being downgraded by Morgan Keegan Tuesday. The move left shares flush with their 50-day moving average.

Markets across Asia were narrowly mixed. India’s BSE 30 tumbled 2.4%.

Stocks in Europe and the U.K. pared early gains after sluggish U.S. jobs and inflation data.

Brazil’s Bovespa jumped 1.5% in morning dealings.

Stocks opened lower Thursday, pressured by hotter-than-expected inflation data and a worse-than-expected jobless claims.

At 9:54 a.m. EDT, the NYSE composite was down 0.7% and the Nasdaq 0.2%. The Dow and S&P 500 each fell 0.6%.

Volume was tracking lower across the board.

Flower Foods (FLO) gapped down, slumping 2.71, or 8%, to 29.26 in fast trade. The bakery products supplier posted Q2 earnings a penny shy of views, hurt by higher input cost. Flower did boost its full-year outlook to reflect a recent acquisition. It sees profit in a range of $1.17 to $1.23 a share vs. views of $1.21. Revenue should come in between $2.4 billion and $2.43 billion vs. estimates of $2.28 billion.

NCI Building Systems (NCS) gapped down, falling 1.85, or 5%, to 36.61 following a downgrade. UBS cut the metal products firm to sell from neutral and cut its price target to 32 from 34.

Urban Outfitters (URBN) gapped up, then reversed, with shares falling 0.50 to 33.55. Before the open, the clothing retailer logged Q2 profit of 33 cents share, up 74% from the prior year and 3 cents above views. Sales increased 30% to $454.3 million, also above views.

Meanwhile, Research In Motion (RIMM) gained 1.74 to 128.63 in fast trade, bouncing back from a three-session pullback. On Wednesday, the BlackBerry device maker found support at its 50-day moving average. The stock might be forming a handle.

Stock futures pointed to a weaker open Thursday on worse-than-expected economic data.

Nasdaq futures dropped 12 points vs. fair value, S&P 500 futures fell 8 points and Dow futures dropped 45 points.

In economic news, monthly consumer prices climbed 0.8% in July, fueled by higher food and energy costs. That was double economists’ expectations. On a year-over-year basis, prices rose 5.6% — the most in 17 years. Core prices, which strip out food and energy, rose 0.3%, above views of 0.2%.

Initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 450,000 vs. expectation for 436,000.

Wal-Mart (WMT) fell slightly in the pre-market despite posting strong earnings and raising guidance. The world’s largest retailer delivered fiscal Q2 profit of 87 cents a share, up from 76 cents a year earlier and 3 cents above estimates. Sales grew 10% to $101.6 billion, below views of $101.9 billion. Wal-Mart raised its full-year profit outlook to a range of $3.43 to $3.50 a share vs. views of $3.49.

Driven by strong international results, the Estee Lauder Cos. (EL) reported fiscal Q4 earnings of 61 cents a share, up 36% from the prior year and a nickel above views. Sales rose 14% to $2.01 billion, above views of $1.93 billion. The cosmetics maker guided current quarter and full-year earnings in line with views. Shares climbed 7% in the pre-open.

Group mate Elizabeth Arden (RDEN) rose 6% on a strong profit outlook. The company met views with fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of 22 cents a share, up 10% from a year earlier. Sales fell nearly 3% to $236.3 million, below views. It guided fiscal 2009 income in a range of $1.65 to $1.85 a share vs. views of $1.61.

NetApp (NTAP) fell 5% in the pre-market on a disappointing outlook. Late Wednesday, the maker of data storage products reported fiscal Q1 profit in line with views and guided Q2 earnings in a range of 27 cents to 30 cents a share views vs. of 30 cents. The company’s board also approved a $1 billion stock buyback.

On the M&A front, Skechers (SKX) offered to buy Heelys (HLYS) for $142.8 million in cash. Heelys surged 14% in the pre-open.

Elsewhere, crude oil slipped after bouncing nearly $3 Wednesday. The September contract fell 30 cents to $115.70 a barrel.

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THANKS!
Jim

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